🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still