A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. As the England international curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen games, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
This is a rather hard query to address. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club who have just won 10 in a row, they appear curiously susceptible – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- The winger could transform into the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
