From Grudging Admiration to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to proceed: fast, dramatic and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage. But offering any tangible support to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”