Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Statistics

The mean count of daily killings monthly in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh administrative data. Nevertheless, public safety specialists have advised that homicide data might not indicate enhanced countrywide safety.

Significant Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an average of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This data was delivered by the director of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen in these past months is remarkably notable,” the President stated, adding that last month the lowest number of homicides were recorded for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Violent organized crime infighting, alongside the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over four times higher than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, falling to 33,550 last year. The President has linked her national security strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in killings this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigation work.
• Enhanced collaboration between government departments.

Expert Warnings and Data Concerns

But, public safety experts cautioned that using homicide statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is notably true given the uptick in other crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be excellent news if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just look at the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer useful for estimating the context of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the will to accurately identify and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of everyday killings was also concerning because it could mask days when there were particularly spiking levels of killings.

“Using the daily mean renders surges of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by extreme bloodshed, with multiple states in the throes of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the country to show their outrage at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst said.