A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
